US inflation today: 1.71% year-over-year (Nowflation Gauge, CPI-comparable, as of 2026-07-05), versus the official BLS CPI of 4.2% (2026-05 print) — a gap of -2.49pp. The Nowflation Cost-of-Living variant (marginal-buyer shelter: price × mortgage rate) reads 1.32%. Cumulatively, prices are up 33.9% since January 2018, our base period.
Today's read: Nowflation Gauge holds at 1.72% YoY as motor fuel slumps 11.66% MoM, widening the gap to May's 4.2% official CPI. The Nowflation Gauge eased to 1.72% YoY, down 0.012pp on the day, 0.401pp on the week and 0.836pp on the month; cost-of-living reads 1.33% YoY. Motor Fuel led the decline, off 0.34% DoD, 2.83% WoW and 11.66% MoM (still up 20.2% YoY), shaving 1.02bps off the daily print. Shelter held firmer, with Owned at 2.72% YoY versus Rent at 0.69%. The gauge now sits 2.48pp below May's official CPI print of 4.2% YoY (prior 3.8%, core 2.9%, highest since April 2023), pointing to downside risk for the June release versus the 3.90% Street consensus and the model's 4.025% nowcast. Forward fuel curves signal further relief, with pump prices set to ease from $3.81 to $3.779 over two weeks, down 3.1 cents.
| Index | Nowflation YoY | Official YoY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI (daily gauge) | 1.71% | 4.2% (2026-05) | -2.49pp |
| Core CPI (nowcast (2026-06 print)) | 2.87% | 2.9% (2026-05) | -0.03pp |
| Supercore (svcs ex-shelter) (daily gauge) | 2.01% | — | — |
| PCE (PCE-weighted gauge) (daily gauge · out-of-pocket scope) | 2.02% | 4.07% (2026-05) | -2.05pp |
| Core PCE (Fed 2% target) (nowcast (2026-06 print)) | 3.4% | 3.41% (2026-05) | -0.01pp |
| Component | Our YoY | BLS YoY | CPI weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter: Rent | 0.8% | 2.9% | 7.5% |
| Shelter: Owned | 3.3% | 3.3% | 26.5% |
| Motor Fuel | 41.6% | 41.6% | 3.0% |
| Used Vehicles | -2.0% | -2.0% | 2.1% |
| New Vehicles | 0.2% | 0.2% | 3.6% |
| Food at Home | 2.7% | 2.7% | 8.2% |
| Food Away | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.7% |
| Electricity | 8.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% |
| Utility Gas | -5.6% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Medical Care | 2.6% | 2.6% | 8.1% |
| Apparel | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Recreation | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.3% |
| Education & Comm | 0.8% | 0.8% | 5.5% |
| Everything Else | 2.8% | 2.8% | 18.5% |
The Nowflation Gauge is a daily market-price inflation index built from 1066 public series across 25 sources (Zillow and Apartment List rents, AAA pump prices, Manheim used-vehicle auctions, USDA and BLS shelf prices, EIA energy, direct BLS/BEA/Treasury feeds, and FRED), weighted to the CPI basket, base period January 2018 = 100. It ships in two shelter variants: CPI-comparable (rental-equivalence without the BLS survey lag) and Cost-of-Living (house price × current mortgage rate). Historical values are stored vintage-true and never silently revised; methodology changes ship in a dated public changelog. Our CPI nowcast is graded publicly after every print alongside the Cleveland Fed, Street consensus, and Kalshi prediction markets. Updated every morning before the US market open; this snapshot published July 5, 2026 at 3:28 PM ET.
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