US inflation today: 2.89% year-over-year (Nowflation Gauge, CPI-comparable, measured as of 2026-09-02 — a measurement, not a forecast), versus the official BLS CPI of 3.4% (2026-07 print) — a gap of -0.51pp. The Gauge's 3-month annualized pace (seasonally adjusted) is 1.32%, its 1-month pace 3.20% — what today's prices are doing, net of last year's base. What CPI will print: the Nowflation Forecast for the 2026-08 CPI (released September 11 at 8:30 AM ET) is 3.33%, pre-registered and graded after the print. The Nowflation Cost-of-Living variant (marginal-buyer shelter: price × mortgage rate) reads 3.68%. Cumulatively, prices are up 36.9% since January 2018, our base period.
Today's read: Nowflation Gauge ticks up to 3.01% YoY, +0.014pp on the day, led by a 0.37% daily jump in motor fuel. The Nowflation Gauge stands at 3.01% YoY, rising 0.014pp on the day but down 0.022pp on the week and 0.008pp on the month, with cumulative inflation since January 2018 at 33.2%. Motor Fuel drove the daily move, up 0.37% DoD (29.89% YoY, contributing 1.1bps), while Shelter: Owned (3.23% YoY, +0.26% MoM) and Shelter: Rent (1.88% YoY, +0.2% MoM) added steady upward pressure. The gauge sits 0.39pp below the official July CPI print of 3.4% YoY, consistent with a softer August Nowflation Forecast of 3.285% versus the prior official reading. Fuel forwards point higher, with pump prices at $4.095 seen rising to $4.113 over two weeks, a 1.8-cent increase.
| Index | Nowflation YoY | Official YoY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI (daily gauge) | 2.89% | 3.4% (2026-07) | -0.51pp |
| Core CPI (Nowflation Forecast (2026-08 print)) | 2.32% | 2.5% (2026-07) | -0.18pp |
| Supercore (svcs ex-shelter) (daily gauge) | 2.3% | — | — |
| PCE (PCE-weighted gauge) (daily gauge · out-of-pocket scope) | 2.91% | 3.7% (2026-07) | -0.79pp |
| Core PCE (Fed 2% target) (Nowflation Forecast (2026-08 print)) | 3.34% | 3.34% (2026-07) | 0pp |
| Component | Our YoY | BLS YoY | CPI weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter: Rent | 0.9% | 2.9% | 7.5% |
| Shelter: Owned | 3.3% | 3.2% | 26.5% |
| Motor Fuel | 31.2% | 31.2% | 3.0% |
| Used Vehicles | 2.1% | -1.9% | 2.1% |
| New Vehicles | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.6% |
| Food at Home | 2.7% | 2.6% | 8.2% |
| Food Away | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.7% |
| Electricity | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Utility Gas | 3.0% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Medical Care | 2.0% | 1.7% | 8.1% |
| Apparel | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Recreation | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.3% |
| Education & Comm | -0.1% | 0.5% | 5.5% |
| Everything Else | 2.6% | 2.5% | 18.5% |
The Nowflation Gauge is a daily market-price inflation index built from 21 input series across the 14 CPI components — the official BLS subindex each component carries between prints, spliced with live market prices where a better daily source exists (Zillow and Apartment List new-lease rents, AAA pump prices, Manheim used-vehicle auctions, EIA residential energy, and Zillow home values with today's mortgage rate for the cost-of-living variant) — weighted to the CPI basket, base period January 2018 = 100. Behind it sits an open directory of 1,629 public series from 30 sources (BLS, BEA, EIA, USDA, Treasury, FRED and the market feeds above), every one downloadable. Fuel reprices daily; shelter is the all-tenant rent index — this month's new-lease rents (Zillow, Apartment List) averaged over the tenure of every lease still in force, used as measured (on the record it runs about six months ahead of the official rent index); and the remaining categories hold the latest official print until the next release. The Gauge is a measurement of prices today, not a forecast — the forecast is a separate, pre-registered number graded after every print. It ships in two shelter variants: CPI-comparable (all-tenant rents, measured ahead of the BLS survey lag) and Cost-of-Living (house price × current mortgage rate). Historical values are stored vintage-true and never silently revised; methodology changes ship in a dated public changelog. Our CPI Nowflation Forecast is graded publicly after every print alongside the Cleveland Fed, Street consensus, and Kalshi prediction markets. Updated every morning before the US market open; this snapshot published September 2, 2026 at 12:16 PM ET.
Explore: dashboard · methodology · status · heatcheck · my inflation · vs bls · jobs · housing · farm to shelf · data · scoreboard · gap · gdp · oil · oil vs cpi · gauge · pipeline · natgas · reserves · stockpiles · about · privacy · contact · analysis · expectations · activity · labor · conditions · income · trade · surveys · today · forecast · compare · embeds · money · fiscal · stress · rates · affordability · matrix · indicators · mortgage · calculator · cart · states · counters · recession · commodities · energy · countries · macro · calendar · liquidity · ratios · housing market · revisions · century · nowflation difference · nowflation terms · nowflation how to · supercore · credit · growth · real wages · jobs preview · fx · metros · prediction markets · heating season · thanksgiving · fed watch · nowflation vs truflation · lead test · eggs · gas · coffee · ground beef · electricity · milk · bread · bacon · chicken · chocolate · butter · cheese · flour · rice · potatoes · tomatoes · bananas · oranges · cola · i bonds · tax brackets